Gov/Web 2.0 Predictions for 2010

This is the time of year for predictions of what is ahead. Here’s a compilation of various predictions. Pick those that appeal to you!

Federal News Radio: Web 2.0 is Changing Government. In an interview in late 2009, editor Dorothy Ramienski came to the now-standard conclusion that “Web 2.0 and social networking tools are changing the way the federal government does business.”

Lloyd Howell, a tech consultant, told her: “2.0 isn't simply about technology. It's about making government a platform and making data available for public use, rather than having government act as a simple service provider.” And Alan Silberberg, CEO of You2Gov, a “civic” website designed to connect people with politicians, raised issues about privacy, security, and trusted networks. His site attempts to connect all elected officials – federal and state – into a single forum for citizens to interact with. His goal” “provide free and open access to every citizen of this country.”

Mark Drapeau’s 5 Predictions. Drapeau is a widely-read on-line Gov 2.0 advocate. He offers five predictions of trends he foresees for the next three years:

• Local governments will be the innovation labs. The challenge will be for some one to try to keep track of these hundreds of experiments so the successful ones can be shared more widely.
• “Citizen 2.0” could replace “Gov 2.0.” Creating citizen-centric sites or services will be the cutting edge, which may include a citizen role in co-production of services and innovations. The challenge will be: will on-line communities create stronger connections or increase the polarization of the political world?
• Mobile devices will become primary devices. This is the case in most of the developing world already. The challenge: what happens when iPhones are more powerful than standard desktops?
• Low budget, amateur videos become a common way of communicating. What if government starts to replicate the model of companies like DemandMedia, which produces thousands of low cost, short amateur videos a day that answer common questions like: “How do you paddle a kayak?”
• Government officials are always on-the-record. With the multiplication of devices and platforms to connect, what happens when government officials are always observed and reported on by inquisitive regular citizens and not just journalists?

Social Computing Journal’s 7 Predictions. Ever-insightful Dion Hinchcliffe offers seven predictions for Gov 2.0 in 2010, which he thinks will be driven virally:

• Social computing won’t hit critical mass in 2010. He sees the government not resolving struggles over risk, control, and trust, but clearly experimenting in multiple venues. He sees that the use of social computing will grow within agencies first, before being expanded more broadly to the public (which is the trend in private industry as well).
• Self-service integration and app creation will make deeper inroads.
• Open data will go back to the drawing board.
• Cloud computing will go big.
• Gov 2.0 apps will expand the boundaries of transparency and citizen involvement.
• Government portals will continue incorporating social media.
• Collaborative video, geo-centric uses, mobile, and crowdsourcing will increase but remain niche.

What would you add, delete, or revise?